I watched three Cup previews on Sunday and each expert on the various panel programs mounted a case for every runner on Tuesday bar the Hope horse who, excuse the pun, has no hope.
Great! 23 starters who could figure and after last year’s 100-1 upset, it really is a lottery so take note of these edicts which I’ve found can assist.
Steer away from the top weights and bad barriers. I would discount those above 56kgs and drawn wider than 18. Getting trapped wide is death over two miles especially if there is pace in the race.
The internationals are always the X-factor. History shows you can put a line through those runners who haven’t had at least one lead up start in Australia prior to the Cup so that discounts up to half a dozen of this year’s entrants.
Age shall weary them so any runner older than six has the black line through them. This is now an elite horse’s race not the mediocre staying handicap it was 30 years ago.
The Caulfield Cup for mine is the best form line but I am worried about Jameka’s weight and whether she’ll manage the trip. I won’t back her or the Lexus winner Oceanographer because I am not sold on the quality of the field the Godolphin runner beat home on Derby Day.
I don’t see a Makybe Diva in this field so I won’t be backing any other mare so my focus has been narrowed to around a handful of runners who fit the bill and who have prevailed past 2500 metres.
Hartnell is the best credentialed but as a hungry punter, I don’t like backing a Cup runner under 10-1. Call me greedy! So, after all that I have come up with the Robert Hickmott-trained Almandin as my top each way pick for the Cup. His win in the Bart Cummings was top notch and reminds me a lot of Lloyd Williams’ 2012 Cup winner Green Moon. He is also lightly raced and seems to enjoy Flemington.
Good luck
Ben Dobson’s Cup tips:
1. Almandin
2. Hartnell
3. Bondi Beach
4. Qewy
Best Roughie: Curren Mirotic
